Anticipating and Preventing Governance Breakdown and Violent Conflicts in the EU’s Neighborhood

Project Duration

Mar 2018–Mar 2021


European Union / Horizon 2020

Europe’s External Action and the Dual Challenges of Limited Statehood and Contested Orders” (EU-LISTCO) is a collaborative research project which investigates governance breakdown and violent conflict in the European Union’s neighborhood as threats to the security of Europe and its citizens, and how European foreign policy can better anticipate, prevent and respond to such threats.

EU-LISTCO is a consortium of fourteen leading universities and think tanks in Europe and its neighborhood, working closely with policymakers from the French, German and Italian diplomatic services and the European External Action Service.

GPPi leads the project’s work on risk scanning and foresight for strategic policy design. It combines quantitative and scenario-based foresight methods to identify and assess tipping points for future security threats. In Oslo, our partners at PRIO develop a sub-national quantitative forecasting tool to assess risk for governance breakdown and violent conflict. Together with our partners at Foresight Intelligence, the team in Berlin implements a series of scenario-based threat-scanning and policy design workshops on plausible trajectories toward governance breakdown and violent conflict in the EU’s neighborhood and how to prevent them. They bring together regional experts from the research and foreign policy community to collaboratively identify potential future threats to the security of Europe and develop strategic policy options. Further information on the project, including other work streams and publications can be found on eu​-list​co​.net.

IMG 8549
Experts discuss plausible future scenarios for governance breakdown in the European Union’s eastern neighborhood.
IMG 1308
EU-LISTCO workshops ask experts to imagine plausible futures in Europe's neighborhood.
IMG 8583
The foresight methodology allows policymakers to anticipate violent conflict and governance breakdown.
IMG 1284
Experts identify threats and opportunities in future scenarios.

The project is funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement no. 769886

Project Publications

Other Relevant Publications