In a time of constant change, what will the EU’s neighborhood look like in five years? How could future developments in different regions constitute a threat for peace in the European Union? What steps can the EU take to prepare for an uncertain future?
This booklet presents 13 scenarios for governance breakdown and violent conflict in the EU’s neighborhood until 2024, which were created in the context of the EU-LISTCO research project. They are the result of four threat-scanning exercises with expert participants and relate to the following geographical and thematic areas:
- Middle East: The region between the Mediterranean and Afghanistan, plus the Gulf countries;
- The European Union’s Eastern Neighborhood: Including the countries of the EU’s Eastern Partnership and the Russian Federation;
- North Africa: With scenarios for Libya and Tunisia;
- Out-of-control technologies: Risks related to technologies that have become independent of their origin and creators, whether by design or accident.
For each topic, a small group of experts (between 8 and 15) participated in an exercise conducted in part online and in part at a workshop. The group of participants for each exercise consisted of EU-LISTCO researchers with relevant regional or sectoral expertise, additional experts from Europe and the focus regions, and policymakers from cooperating foreign services (including France, Germany, Italy, and the EU). The four workshops took place between June 2018 and May 2019 in Jerusalem, Berlin, Paris, and Brussels.