Commentary 04 February 2025

Trump’s Trade Wars: How Much They Threaten Germany and Europe and How We Can Protect Ourselves

President Trump’s announcement that he will definitely” impose tariffs similar to those of Canada and Mexico on the EU should alarm us. Now Europe must take responsibility for its own security.

Trump 2.0 and Global Governance

During his first US presidential term, Donald Trump took a major swing at global governance. He pulled the US out of the Paris Agreement, withdrew from UNESCO and abandoned the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in favor of an America First” trade policy — just to name a few.


In a new video from the ENSURED project, experts Hylke Dijkstra, Clara Weinhardt, Katja Biedenkopf and Michal Parizek reflect on how a second Trump presidency might impact global governance.

Watch the Video
Article

Gegen den Strich: Zukunftsforschung und Sicherheitspolitik

Kassandra hat es, so der Mythos, mit präzisen Prognosen versucht und wurde ebenso ignoriert wie Deutschlands osteuropäische Nachbarn vor Russlands Vollinvasion der Ukraine. Was kann die Zukunftsforschung zu einer besseren Sicherheitspolitik beitragen?

Case study

“As Large of a Lead as Possible”?

With Donald Trump’s inauguration around the corner, we took stock of the Biden administration’s track record on Critical and Emerging Technologies. How effective were the US measures to promote and protect American tech, specifically vis-à-vis China? And did they further US national interests? 

Project

Political Tools for Managing Crises in Africa

The African continent faces several governance and security challenges, ranging from civil wars to coups and violent extremism. Previous policy responses, both African and European, have often been inadequate. We propose policy recommendations for long-term stabilization.

Neurotechnology: Considerations for Foreign and Security Policy

This project analyzes the rapidly developing field of neurotechnology from the perspectives of foreign and security policy. How might Germany take on a strategic position in the global neurotechnology ecosystem?

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Journal article

Futures-Thinking

In her encyclopedia entry on futures-thinking”, Gelila Enbaye takes stock of decolonial perspectives within foresight studies. She highlights alternatives to the (possibly) uncritical adoption of Western perspectives on reading the future. 

Book chapter

Mitigating the Risks of "Wicked Problems" in Security Sector Reform

Abi Watson contributed to an edited volume entitled Enhancing Stabilization and Strategic Partnership in a Post-Conflict Environment: A Comprehensive Approach to Human Security.” In her chapter, she proposes long-term solutions to two wicked problems” that plague international security sector reform.

Commentary

Zentrum für Zukunft: Warum ein Nationaler Sicherheitsrat nicht ausreicht

Ein Nationaler Sicherheitsrat allein kann die Defizite bei strategischer Vorausschau in Deutschland nicht beheben, so Sarah Bressan vom Global Public Policy Institute (GPPi). Stattdessen solle ein Zentrum für Zukunft mit einem wissenschaftlichen Stab etabliert werden.
Interview

Zwischen den Großmächten: Was bedeutet Trumps China-Politik für uns?

In einem Interview mit dem IP-Podcast Pod und die Welt spricht Thorsten Benner darüber, was Europa tun muss, um nicht zwischen den Großmächten zerrieben zu werden und ob Deutschland ausreichend auf die Risiken eines möglichen China-Schocks 2.0” vorbereitet ist.

Podcast

Wie die NATO die Ostsee schützen will

Thorsten Benner spricht im ZEIT ONLINE-Podcast Was Jetzt? über die Herausforderungen für die NATO im Vorfeld des NATO-Ostsee-Gipfels 2025.