Commentary 23 January 2025

Looking in the Mirror in Times of Trump

The global order as we know it — one led by an internationalist US — has received a final blow. It can’t survive another four years of Trump at the helm, Thorsten Benner argues in Handelsblatt. 

Trump 2.0 and Global Governance

During his first US presidential term, Donald Trump took a major swing at global governance. He pulled the US out of the Paris Agreement, withdrew from UNESCO and abandoned the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in favor of an America First” trade policy — just to name a few.


In a new video from the ENSURED project, experts Hylke Dijkstra, Clara Weinhardt, Katja Biedenkopf and Michal Parizek reflect on how a second Trump presidency might impact global governance.

Watch the Video
Article

Gegen den Strich: Zukunftsforschung und Sicherheitspolitik

Kassandra hat es, so der Mythos, mit präzisen Prognosen versucht und wurde ebenso ignoriert wie Deutschlands osteuropäische Nachbarn vor Russlands Vollinvasion der Ukraine. Was kann die Zukunftsforschung zu einer besseren Sicherheitspolitik beitragen?

Case study

“As Large of a Lead as Possible”?

With Donald Trump’s inauguration around the corner, we took stock of the Biden administration’s track record on Critical and Emerging Technologies. How effective were the US measures to promote and protect American tech, specifically vis-à-vis China? And did they further US national interests? 

Project

Evaluating the International Response to the Humanitarian Crisis in Somalia

Over the past decade, Somalia has faced continuous droughts, with the incredibly severe 2021 – 2023 droughts compounding the effects of previous crises. In this project, we analyze the international response launched in response to this ever-worsening humanitarian crisis.

Neurotechnology: Considerations for Foreign and Security Policy

This project analyzes the rapidly developing field of neurotechnology from the perspectives of foreign and security policy. How might Germany take on a strategic position in the global neurotechnology ecosystem?

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Interview

Zwischen den Großmächten: Was bedeutet Trumps China-Politik für uns?

In einem Interview mit IP Quarterly’s Pod und die Welt besprecht Thorsten Benner, was Europa tun muss, um nicht zwischen den Großmächten zerrieben zu werden und ob Deutschland ausreichend auf die Risiken eines möglichen China-Schocks 2.0” vorbereitet ist. 

Commentary

MERICS Forum: The Next German Government's China Policy

In the run-up to the German elections, Thorsten Benner gives his recommendations on what the next German government should prioritize when it comes to dealing with China. 

Podcast

Wie die NATO die Ostsee schützen will

Thorsten Benner spricht im ZEIT ONLINE-Podcast Was Jetzt? über die Herausforderungen für die NATO im Vorfeld des NATO-Ostsee-Gipfels 2025.

Commentary

Europe's Moment to Get on the Front Foot on De-Risking from China

With Donald Trump set to return to office, Europe faces critical decisions on trade and security. Jakob Hensing, Thorsten Benner and Florian Klumpp argue European leaders must swiftly negotiate with Trump to protect their interests and address the growing challenge of China.

Article

The Underwater Battlefield: Protecting Submarine Critical Infrastructure

Submarine critical infrastructure is vital for Europe’s data and energy needs and is vulnerable to attacks. European policymakers are faced with the triple challenge of attribution, deterrence, and resilience.

Commentary

Europe Is Ready to Team Up on China—if Trump Is

A US-EU trade war could derail a combined effort to face down China. Here’s why Donald Trump should choose a different path.