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The US military operation in Venezuela and President Trump's talk of seizing Greenland confronted European leaders with an uncomfortable question: How do democracies navigate a world where power politics trumps international law?…

Peking und Moskau sind Verbündete Venezuelas. Dennoch haben sie verhalten auf die Verhaftung Maduros reagiert.…

US-Präsident Trump beansprucht die Kontrolle über Grönland. Welche Szenarien sind denkbar?…

Statt mit Verbündeten gemeinsam gegen Chinas drohende industrielle Übermacht vorzugehen, überzieht Donald Trump Partner in Asien und Europa mit wirtschaftlichen Drohungen.…

A number of states in the Wester Balkans and the so-called Eastern Neighborhood are applying to become part of the European Union. Using scenario-based forecasting methods, this paper investigates possible future threats to these candidate countries.…

Souveräne Gleichheit der Staaten ist für den US-Präsidenten eine reine Fiktion. Die „Donroe-Doktrin“ bedeutet keinen Rückzug der USA auf die Heimatregion.…

One of the many remarkable features of the second Trump presidency has been the highly public embrace between his administration and tech sector leaders. What does "tech" want, and what are the implications of US tech statecraft for Europe?…

In order to effectively prevent and counter violent extremism (P/CVE), we need to know what works and what doesn't. Evaluation is therefore crucial to improving the practice of P/CVE. This study is the third and final report of a three-year survey series tracking global trends in violent extremism, prevention, and evaluation.…

How can states navigate the unprecedented and seemingly erratic ways in which the current US administration wields its power? Sofie Lilli Stoffel discusses this on the Global Exchange Podcast.…

To safeguard European stability, Germany must focus its security engagement where meaningful results are possible. Emerging risks, from Ukraine to the Western Balkans, require targeted, preventive action. But with non-military resources scarce, rigorous prioritization grounded in realistic success prospects becomes even more essential.…

Whether Donald Trump is a narcissist or not is hard to say. His foreign policy, however, is another story.…

Hybrid forms of extremism are rapidly proliferating, both on- and offline. To understand today’s new, more complex threats, governments should be revitalizing and reinvesting in prevention programs — but instead, they are cutting programs and support en masse.…

Youth radicalization is on the rise, but extremism prevention efforts are not keeping up with this shifting focus. How can evaluations help extremism prevention become more attuned to youth realities?…

Wissenschaftsfreiheit ist eine zentrale Säule offener Gesellschaften und demokratischer Staaten – und autoritären Akteuren oft ein Dorn im Auge. Vor dem globalen Hintergrund stellt sich die Frage: Was lernen wir aus den Angriffen auf Wissenschaftler*innen und die Universitäten für akademischen Widerstand in Deutschland, und wie wappnen wir uns institutionell und individuell dafür?…

Erste Vorboten dieser Entwicklung sind dramatische Gewerbesteuereinbrüche, gerade im Süden des Landes, und der Abbau von Arbeitsplätzen. Wir müssen uns schützen.…

Kollektives Elitenversagen habe uns erpressbar gemacht und deutsche Kernindustrien hilflos dem China-Schock ausgeliefert. Es sei daher Zeit für einen Kurswechsel, schreibt China-Experte Thorsten Benner.…

In 2025, maps (still) shape incentives, but they no longer dictate outcomes. Power travels not only through straits and passes, but along supply chains, data cables, payment rails, and technical standards – and is bounded by power‑backed rules that raise the cost of coercion. This essay keeps Karl Haushofer’s map, where geopolitics still matters, while discarding his myth: geography frames, connectivity scripts and power‑backed rules decide.…

Following terror attacks in the early 2000s, many European and North American governments focused on religious ideology as the main driver of extremism, while neglecting other roots of radicalization. Over time, some have adopted more holistic and less harmful prevention. This brief explains this shift and how evaluations can contribute to course correction.…