Krisen von morgen

Predicting and Preventing the Next Crisis

Bressan 2022 Kv M2
Source: Bundeswehr / Flickr

International troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, coup in Mali, invasion of Ukraine: attention to foreign policy largely follows media headlines. But what is going on behind the scenes of government? What are Germany and the EU doing to foresee and prevent conflicts and violence before they erupt? What can actors do to promote peace worldwide? And how can we use data to predict where in the world the next crisis looms?

Krisen von morgen” is a German-language podcast about how diplomats and scientists are working together to be better prepared for the next crisis. In five episodes, host Sarah Bressan talks to expert guests about the challenges of anticipating and preventing violent conflicts and other man-made catastrophes. At the end of each conversation, she asks them where the next crisis looms.

In episode one, German Minister of State Tobias Lindner and Carlo Masala of the Bundeswehr University Munich’s Center for Crisis Early Warning share how they use forecasting and scenario techniques to anticipate crises and discuss the challenges of science-policy interaction. In episode two, director Deike Potzel and Ambassador Ingo Herbert share Germany’s priorities for preventing conflicts – with a focus on West Africa and Côte d’Ivoire. The third episode revolves around conflict research and ways to forecast conflict with media reports and machine learning — with Vanessa Gottwick (Bundeswehr University Center for Crisis Early Warning) and Christopher Rauh (Cambridge University). In the fourth episode, Florence Gaub explains how to succeed at foresight for policy and Anja Palm gives insights into the EU’s Early Warning System. In the last episode, Sarah Bressan invites Nina von Uexkull (Uppsala University), Ornella Moderan (Clingendael), Pegah Maham (Stiftung Neue Verantwortung) and Christoph Meyer (King’s College London) to provide their perspectives on particular challenges of forecasting conflict – including climate factors, data ethics and risk communication – in ways that lead to meaningful preventive action.

Listen to all five episodes here and on most major streaming services. 

This podcast is part of 49security, the platform dedicated to Germany’s first national security strategy – a project of the Global Public Policy Institute in Berlin and generously funded by the German Federal Foreign Office.