The End of German Populist Exceptionalism

With this Sunday’s elections in Berlin, the right-wing populist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is expected to enter the tenth regional parliament in Germany. While the AfD is drawing voters from all mainstream parties, the bleeding from Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is the strongest. The AfD has succeeded at turning regional elections into referenda on the chancellor’s refugee policy. Two weeks ago in Merkel´s home state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the AfD even managed to gain more votes than the CDU, dealing the chancellor’s party a highly symbolic defeat. Now polling between 9 and 14 percent nationwide, the AfD is likely to enter parliament with a strong showing in the fall of 2017.

This marks the decisive end of German exceptionalism on populism. While right-wing populist forces have had strong showings in all of its neighboring countries, they have not seemed to have much luck in Germany. For years, Merkel appeared to defy political gravity. She pulled her conservative CDU toward the center-left, made it more social-democratic (by protecting and partly expanding social security benefits), greener (by ending nuclear power) and more open to Islam (by stating that Islam is a part of Germany). She gained many centrist voters and did not seem to have to pay any price for it since no party was able to establish itself to the right of the CDU. Despite years of Euro crisis, the AfD only received 4.7 percent of the nationwide vote in the 2013 parliamentary elections. All of this changed with the mass arrival of (mostly Muslim) refugees. The party decisively morphed into a nativist, anti-Islam force and has scored double-digit results in all regional elections since the fall of 2015. 

Now facing a strong populist pull, governing in a centrist fashion will become harder for Merkel, whom AfD Vice Chair Alexander Gauland derided as ​“chancellor-dictator.” On refugees and migration, the AfD favors Australian-style detention centers on unnamed island territories and is in favor of introducing full-fledged border controls within the EU passport-free Schengen area. AfD leader Frauke Petry advocated using firearms to restrict border crossings of ​“illegal migrants” into Germany. On refugees, Merkel has already adjusted her stance significantly. She now emphasizes controlling the EU’s external borders, improving conditions for refugees in the Middle East and Africa and keeping as many refugees out of Europe as possible. Germany has already tightened its asylum rules and is starting to enforce the deportation of rejected asylum seekers with greater vigor. For Merkel, finally communicating this position more forcefully as a departure from her previous stance (something she has steadfastly refused over the past year) could go a long way in terms of countering the radical AfD proposals.

In addition, there will be pressure on Merkel to take a softer line vis-à-vis Russian president Putin. The stance of the AfD toward authoritarian regimes such as Russia is remarkable: the AfD party platform clearly states the principle of ​“not interfering with the domestic matters of other states.” The AfD has been one of the strongest pro-Putin forces in German politics. According to a recent poll, 30 percent of AfD voters trust Putin more than they trust Merkel. In the same vein, while nominally in favor of NATO and Westbindung (Germany´s anchoring in the West), the AfD demands the assertion of German sovereignty by getting rid of all US troops on German soil and all nuclear weapons stationed in Germany.

Still, compared to her counterparts in Austria and France, Merkel is in a more comfortable position. As center-left leaders, French President Hollande and the Austrian chancellor have to contend with the two main parties to their right competing to be the toughest on migrants, refugees, Muslims and the EU. Merkel only faces the AfD to her right. 

For the time being, Merkel’s biggest danger is the rising nervousness within her own party and the CSU, the CDU´s Bavarian sister. Her internal critics demand drastic changes regarding immigration and the role of Islam in order to put the AfD genie back into the bottle. Over the past weeks, CDU and CSU officials have floated a number of ideas from a ban on the burka to outlawing dual citizenship (targeting Turkish Germans). Merkel joined the populist chorus for the first time two weeks ago when she demanded that all those with Turkish roots living in Germany ​“develop a high degree of loyalty to our country.” In return, she promised to ​“try to have an open ear for their concerns.” This patronizing language endangers the significant progress that has been made thanks to a more open position of the CDU on Islam in Germany. 

Merkel’s CDU needs to choose whether it wants to be a modern, open conservative party or one that incorporates a strong wing with AfD views. The laws of political gravity seem to dictate that you cannot be both. And even if you play to the right, you have no guarantee that voters won’t go for the AfD original. Staying in the center seems a sensible path for the CDU; this would acknowledge that it likely cannot prevent the very existence of a right-wing party such as the AfD, which has become a fixture of all ​“normal” European countries. But what it can do is to keep the seemingly unavoidable populist right small by winning back the trust of many citizens currently casting their protest vote with the AfD.

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This commentary was originally published by Al Jazeera on September 17, 2016.