Precarious Union: Why Europeans Need to Fight for Their Project

June 23, 2016 might very well be a watershed moment for the European project. Depending on the results of the British referendum scheduled that day, it may mark the first time that a country leaves the European Union. This will come as a shock to those who still view the EU as a supranational political creation with only one direction: towards an ​“ever closer union.” 

But Brexit, once fully negotiated, is unlikely to serve as an attractive blueprint for other EU members. Britain will have to undergo the painful process of renegotiating its economic relationship with the EU. Like Norway and Switzerland, it will have to commit to implementing EU regulations without having a seat at the table where these rules are decided. Moreover, Britain’s dreams of the country enjoying renewed greatness once it is outside of the EU are mere fantasy. The reality will be one of ​“Little England.” 

Brexit bodes poorly not only for Britain. The possibility of Brexit could not come at a worse time for Europe, which is surrounded by an arc of instability: a newly aggressive Russia that refuses to decline gracefully, and the increasingly unravelling regions of North Africa and the Middle East, where transnational terrorism has found fertile ground. Due to the multiplicity of crises, the EU has become more inward-looking and focused on its immediate neighborhood. Many Europeans fear that their dreams of maintaining decent societies with a high level of social protection for a broad middle class will not survive the demands of global competition. They are also afraid of the millions of refugees and economic migrants (especially Muslims) who aspire to the same lifestyle, streaming into Europe and changing the cultural makeup of the continent. 

Populist parties have been feeding on this new age of fear in Europe. They offer an easy solution: pull up the national drawbridge to keep migrants and competition out. As they gain in support, the political center is shrinking across the continent. Christian democratic and social democratic parties that have been at the foundation of much of the European project are weakening. The enemies of an open society are gaining ground. Right-wing populists such as Viktor Orbán, prime minister of Hungary, and Marine Le Pen, president of the National Front in France, are proudly proclaiming their distaste for liberal democracy. 

All the while, EU leaders have been unable to muster the political will to address deficiencies in the two most ambitions elements of the European construction. The refugee crisis and the recent spate of terrorist attacks have brought to sharp relief that the Schengen passport-free travel zone lacks a common border security regime, joint asylum system and an apparatus properly joining up the work of police and intelligence agencies. In addition, the eurozone lacks a truly integrated market (for services in particular), a banking union and politically viable mechanisms for managing crises and risks. 

Due to its strong economy, Germany has been thrown into a lonely leadership role in Europe. In the Ukraine crisis, Germany successfully paved the way for a political solution backed by sanctions. But both the euro and the refugee crisis have made it clear how difficult it is for Germany to deal with challenges when there are deep divisions between EU countries. The fact that the German government finds itself increasingly challenged by the fast-growing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which is right-wing and populist, will only further constrain its leadership role. As German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier argued in February, ​“the forces pulling us apart in Europe are so enormous,” that it would be a ​“great achievement to have the same EU” in a year’s time. 

Threats to the European project have led to increased US re-engagement in Europe. During his recent trip to Europe, President Barack Obama made a forceful case against Brexit and reminded Europeans of the historic achievements of their integration project and of the dangers of giving up on it. ​“If a unified, peaceful, liberal, pluralistic, free-market Europe begins to doubt itself, begins to question the progress that’s been made over the last several decades, then we can’t expect the progress that is just now taking hold in many places around the world will continue,” Obama said. ​“Instead, we will be empowering those who argue that democracy can’t work, that intolerance and tribalism and organizing ourselves along ethnic lines and authoritarianism and restrictions on the press – that those are the things that the challenges of today demand.”

The US is spearheading the effort to secure the EU’s eastern flank against Russia. American engagement of this kind is necessary and helpful in a time of crisis, but ultimately, only Europeans can extricate themselves out of the downward spiral towards fragmentation. Europe faces a turbulent world in which its economic and political weight relative to rising powers such as China is shrinking. The only rational response is to unite so that Europeans can effectively project their values and interests.

But pro-Europeans have not made their case effectively in recent years. Rational arguments along the lines of ​“there is no alternative” will not be enough to win the day against the seductive poison of nationalist populists. Pro-Europeans need to develop the same level of passion as the enemies of the European project. That does not mean blind rage and open contempt against nationalist populists and their voters. This would only confirm the latter in their beliefs about the arrogance of the liberal democratic establishment and the media conspiracy against them. Rather, pro-Europeans should engage with the various arguments and policy prescriptions of the nationalist populists one by one. At the same time, they need to explain in detail – with reason and with passion – why and how the European project is the best way for Europeans to continue building ​“decent societies” in an increasingly competitive and hostile world. In Steinmeier’s words, ​“We need to fight for Europe.” 

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A Chinese language version of this commentary appeared in the People’s Daily on June 20, 2016.