Foreign Malign Influence in the Western Balkans and the EU's Eastern Neighborhood

This booklet presents six scenarios for 2035, developed to investigate potential threats from the geopolitical ambitions of foreign state actors to the democratic resilience of (potential) candidate countries for EU membership in the Western Balkans and EU’s Eastern Neighborhood. 

The scenarios were not designed to predict the most likely future. To the contrary, they were developed to explore challenges that could stem from underrated ways in which foreign influence from non-democratic state actors could undermine democracy and EU accession prospects in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Ukraine. As such, they deliberately push beyond the boundaries of what is currently considered probable. 

The scenarios build on expert survey assessments about critical uncertainties and underrated future threats. They were developed in the first half of 2025 with participation of REUNIR researchers in a facilitated foresight process that sought to integrate expertise on the military, economic and political dimensions of resilience and foreign influence. The full methodology with definitions of key concepts can be found in a separate working paper, alongside an analysis of the results (REUNIR Working Paper D7.1, Flachenecker et al. 2025).

This booklet was originally published by REUNIR, a Horizon Europe project funded by the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation program under grant agreement no. 101132446.