Merkel and the Trump/Clinton Aftermath

Donald Trump is Germany’s gift to America. After all, his grandfather left Germany for the US, where Friedrich Drumpf morphed into Frederic Trump. If he becomes president, German Chancellor Angela Merkel will feel a special responsibility to help make the world safe from a Trump presidency.

“Engagement” and ​“resilience” will be the twin pillars of Merkel’s approach. She will engage Trump using her even-keeled temper perfected during long negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Vice President Mike Pence will have to talk President Trump out of accepting German right-wing populist leader Frauke Petry’s invitation to a ​“peace and stability summit” with Putin. Instead, in March 2017, Merkel will welcome Trump to the family’s ancestral German hometown in the Palatinate region.

Sharing a meal featuring Helmut Kohl’s favorite local Saumagen pork dish, Merkel will get a first-hand impression of Trump’s plans for US alliances in Europe and Asia.

The conversation will leave her somber and determined. Working closely with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Merkel will set out to ring-fence as much as possible the Western alliance from the Trump wrecking ball.

Together with the newly elected French President Alain Juppé, Merkel will accelerate European defense cooperation. Germany will become part of a British-French-German nuclear deterrent thereby reaching the 2 percent GDP goal for military spending faster than planned.

Across Europe, the Trump shock will serve as a wake-up call for centrist politicians and citizens alike to finally muster the necessary passion to work on containing the populist right-wing challenge.

In an alternative reality, having escaped the Trump specter, Merkel will happily welcome President Hillary Clinton on her first trip to Europe with a joint appearance at the Munich Security Conference in mid-February.

Here, Clinton will stroke the needy egos of the assembled transatlantic cheerleaders and will assure them that the US will always have their backs.

She will also promise a tough stance on Russia. In a very cordial private meeting with Merkel, Clinton will call Germany ​“America’s indispensable number one partner in Europe.”

She will explain the high hopes she has for German leadership: toughening sanctions on Russia, helping secure a no-fly zone in Syria, shrinking Germany’s trade surplus and ending the austerity fetish.

Merkel will thank the US president for her kind words and the commitment to the US role in Europe. She will then politely remind Clinton that Germany has elections in the autumn of 2017 and that there are very clear limits to what she can do.

President Clinton will learn early on that Germany does not quite see its leadership role as implementing a US wish list.

…

This commentary was originally published by Al Jazeera on November 6, 2016.