When Your Ally Turns Narcissistic: A Self-Help Manual for Europe Navigating Transatlantic Relations

Since the start of the second Trump administration, every day has brought a new foreign policy controversy. Europe is in a particularly vulnerable position. Russia’s threat to European security has reached its highest level in 30 years, and even though European defense capabilities are expanding, Europe remains far from able to withstand an external attack without US support – which has now become an unreliable ally. This report offers a new approach to understanding – and countering – the unprecedented ways in which the current US administration wields power vis-à-vis its allies. 

By applying insights from psychological research, this study demonstrates that Washington’s actions, while seemingly erratic, often follow an identifiable logic, driven by status, visibility and hierarchy. Narcissism theory is particularly well-suited to explain this behavior, characterized by its use of power for domination and as a way to create deliberate unpredictability and recurring controversies that destabilize established relationships. 

The aim is not to offer a diagnostic test for individual political leaders, but rather to use insights from psychology as an interpretive framework for understanding state- and system-level power dynamics. We’ve developed seven criteria for identifying narcissistic foreign policy patterns: (1) performative and coercive superiority, (2) pursuit of attention, (3) vindictive retaliation, (4) exploitative and derogatory treatment of allies, (5) externalization of problems, (6) command and control, and (7) high-risk, short-term decision-making. Psychological strategies for dealing with narcissistic behavior can also be used to derive practical guidance for governments that expand Europe’s scope for action.

Three case studies reveal how these patterns have played out in practice. The Greenland affair – kick-started by Donald Trump suggesting to buy Greenland from Denmark – became a global spectacle of US superiority, with symbolic stunts outweighing any substantive goal. The second case study: Washington’s push for a quick ​“peace deal” in Ukraine, which served to reassert American dominance while sidelining allies. Finally, the tariff war with the EU demonstrated the centrality of perceived status to the current administration, with trade balances being treated as quantifiable measures of global hierarchy.

Given Brussels’s strategic dependencies and Washington’s willingness to treat Europe’s security interests as expendable, Europe risks being a target of US coercion and unable to advance its own security objectives. If European governments devote their (limited) resources to reacting to every controversy and unprecedented move from the US, this vulnerability will only become more glaring. 

To move from a reactive approach to a proactive strategy, Germany, other European states and the EU should begin by recognizing patterns of status‐​driven behavior, refuse to be drawn into the arena of spectacle by crafting a foreign policy of cordial neutrality, and construct collective countermeasures rooted in reciprocity, confidence, boundaries, and independence.

Recommendations

Hands-on, pragmatic measures for short-term progress

1. Invest in the Optics of Confidence, Independence and Unity
In a status-driven dynamic, symbolic and performative gestures are particularly important. Investing in optics can serve as a stopgap until Europe can leverage increased strengths, independence and unity.

2. Leverage the Power of Saying (and Doing) Nothing
Strategic restraint – limiting responses to provocations and reallocating attention to European priorities – can undercut attention-seeking behavior and reduce escalation risks.

3. Dare to Be Bold
As Europe works to regain initiative by asserting its own priorities on the transatlantic agenda, it should test new ways of shaping relations with Washington by employing bold moves that cut through the noise of controversies.

Building blocks for a mid- and long-term counterstrategy

4. Prepare for Radical Volatility
By anticipating triggers and escalation patterns instead of reacting to each individual shock, European governments can focus their resources on real risks and structurally prepare for the challenges of an erratic, status-driven US foreign policy.

5. Do Not Submit to Excessive Demands
Europe must resist one-sided concessions and instead pursue reciprocity, projecting confidence and leveraging its own strengths to prevent falling into cycles of dependency and domination.

6. Craft a Foreign Policy of Cordial Neutrality
Europe should maintain a calm, consistent and neutral stance that denies Washington the symbolic wins of outrage, while affirming confidence and partnership without submission.

7. Strengthen European Coordination and Unity: Unified messaging, disciplined diplomacy and close coordination between Brussels and member states are Europe’s best defenses against Washington’s manipulation and tactics of division.

8. Continue to Invest in European Independence: Reducing strategic dependencies in defense, energy and trade will strengthen Europe’s resilience against coercive behavior and prepare the continent for a potentially lasting shift in global power dynamics.

Sofie Lilli Stoffel is a Research Fellow at the Global Public Policy Institute (GPPi) who focuses on long-term strategies for foreign and security policy.

Prof. Philipp Yorck Herzberg is a professor of personality psychology and psychological assessment at the University of the Federal Armed Forces Hamburg and serves as an external expert on this project.

For more information, please contact the project lead, Sofie Lilli Stoffel.

This project was made possible through generous private donations from several individuals to GPPi. We gratefully acknowledge contributions from Eric Syz, Dr. Bernd Freiherr von Maltzan, Christian Kluge, Adelheid Mertel-Klinkner and Nicholas Neerpasch as well as from the McCloy-Alumni Oliver Beste, Jutta von Falkenhausen, Friederike Hesse, Christiane Kraus, Susanna Krüger, Andreas Nelle, Christina Schrade, Oliver Triebel and Andreas Witzig.