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Publications by Sarah Bressan
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Commentary 14 Jun 2021
Krisenfrüherkennung: Von der Vorausschau zur Prävention
In der Verbindung von Krisenfrüherkennung und Prävention liegen Potentiale für mehr außenpolitische Strategie- und Handlungsfähigkeit. Was kann die Bundesregierung tun, damit vorausschauende Analysen nicht folgenlos bleiben?… -
Article 13 May 2021
From Conflict Early Warning to Fostering Resilience? Chasing Convergence in EU Foreign Policy
By Sarah Bressan, Aurora BergmaierTo better assess the risk of violent crises, the European Union has invested heavily in early warning systems. How can the EU make sure these capacities contribute to more effective conflict prevention abroad?… -
Article 16 Apr 2021
Strategic Foresight: Shaping Germany’s Post-Pandemic Future
Germany’s change in leadership after the 2021 election will come at a critical juncture in the country's future. How could government foresight help create the long-term vision needed to meet Berlin's challenges?… -
Article 13 Jul 2020
Welcome to the Grey Zone: Future War and Peace
By Sarah Bressan, Mari-Liis SulgWhat could the future of war and peace look like? Which trends in warfare and threats to peace will shape (in)security in Europe and its neighborhood? And what are the key issues at stake in creating a peaceful world?… -
Study 06 Jun 2020
New Expectations: Generation Z and Changing Attitudes on German Foreign Policy
New data shows: fewer German voters favor restraint in foreign policy than ever before. In particular, younger Germans expect their country to take on "more international responsibility." What does this mean for German foreign policy?… -
Study 06 Jun 2020
Neue Erwartungen: Generation Z und der Einstellungswandel zur Außenpolitik
In der deutschen Wahlbevölkerung steigt der Wunsch nach einem stärkeren Engagement Deutschlands in der Lösung von Konflikten. Vor allem die sogenannte „Generation Z“ erwartet deutlich häufiger als andere Altersgruppen, dass ihr Land international Verantwortung übernimmt. Was bedeutet das für die deutsche Außenpolitik?… -
Commentary 13 May 2020
What’s Left of the Failed States Debate?
The number of countries in which state structures have collapsed seems to be growing. But is it really? Are these so-called failed states a threat to global security? And is there an antidote? Five hypotheses, put to the test.… -
Commentary 01 May 2020
Gescheiterte Staaten: Fünf Thesen auf dem Prüfstand
Die Zahl der Länder, in denen die geordnete Staatlichkeit zusammenbricht, scheint dynamisch zu wachsen. Bedrohen „failed states“ den globalen Frieden und die Sicherheit Deutschlands? Fünf Thesen auf dem Prüfstand.… -
Booklet 09 Jan 2020
Scenarios for Governance Breakdown and Violent Conflict in the EU’s Neighborhood
What could the European neighborhood look like in 2024? Using thought experiments on alternative future developments, these scenarios map out areas of potential governance breakdown and violent conflict in the next five years and show the threat they could pose to the EU.… -
Working paper 30 Sep 2019
Forecasting and Foresight: Methods for Anticipating Governance Breakdown and Violent Conflict
The paper presents the evolution and state of the art of quantitative forecasting and scenario-based foresight methods and discusses how they can inform strategic policymaking to prevent governance breakdown and violent conflict in Europe’s neighborhood.… -
Commentary 19 Sep 2019
Can the EU Prevent Deepfakes From Threatening Peace?
Highly realistic fake videos could take online disinformation to the next level. The European Union must take action to prevent deepfakes from becoming the next propaganda tool.… -
Policy brief 24 Jul 2019
Looking Ahead: Foresight for Crisis Prevention
European foreign services are experimenting with looking into ‘the future’. How can policymakers make foresight and forecasting effective tools in their efforts to anticipate and ideally prevent violent conflict? Here’s an overview.… -
Commentary 15 Feb 2019
View From Berlin: The Risk of Deepening the Divide