Germany’s Fragile Center Holds – For Now

The German capital reacted with remarkable calm to Monday’s terror attack. The city is bustling with life. Citizens are mourning the victims, but otherwise going about their pre-Christmas business as usual. One columnist tried to explain the behavior with a bit of armchair psychology: ​“Germans are emotionally not equipped to deal with terrorist attacks, still preferring denial.” This could not be further off the mark.

The reason for the relative calm is that most Germans were prepared for such an act. According to an opinion poll published in mid-December, 70% expected a major terrorist attack.

In a sense, Germans have been waiting for tragedy to hit home ever since the 9/​11 attacks in the United States. The puzzle for most is why it has taken so long to happen. After all, Berlin is an icon for the open way of life that supporters of the so-called Islamic State and other jihadists despise. The attacks in Paris and Brussels and elsewhere were a constant reminder of the threat – as well as a tragic opportunity to practice the cycle of mourning and coping.

And so, when the seemingly inevitable struck, many were appalled, or felt vulnerable, but few were surprised. The authorities were well organized and communicated effectively. Mainstream media reported without hyperbole. There was little panic in the city or elsewhere in the country.

For many in Berlin, the most surprising part of the response took place on social media. Friends not in the city presumed you were a victim, unless you proved otherwise, by activating your Facebook safety button or responding to the messages trickling in from near and far.

Chancellor Angela Merkel’s reaction the day after the attack gave public expression to how Germany’s center feels. She expressed her outrage and admitted that she does not have easy answers on how to best deal with the anxiety such attacks can provoke. At the same time, she rejected being ​“paralyzed by the fear of evil.” She called on citizens to muster the strength to continue with the life ​“we would like to live in Germany, free, together and open.”

Unlike her French counterpart, François Hollande, Merkel rejected the language of war. Instead, she expressed confidence that the perpetrators would be caught and ​“punished as hard as our laws demand.” If Merkel feels any pressure from the rising right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) or from conservatives in her own party, she did not show it in her speech. It was the self-confident expression of a calm and composed – and above all centrist – response to terror.

So, the center holds, for now. But it is increasingly fragile. The attack will further increase political polarization in Germany. Suspicion of Islam and Muslims will grow. Merkel and the remaining centrists are engaged in rearguard action.

A senior AfD official called the victims of the Berlin attack ​“Merkel’s dead.” According to reports, the AfD plans a nation-wide campaign with billboards bearing the capitalized slogan ​“DANKE, FRAU MERKEL!” Merkel’s frenemy Horst Seehofer, leader of her Christian Democrats’ Bavarian sister party, called for a wholesale ​“rethink and readjustment” of Germany´s immigration and security policies.

Merkel will have to work hard to stave off that challenge. A lot of voters now still supporting her governing coalition are susceptible to the lure of a more authoritarian and anti-Muslim response to the terrorist threat.

In order to keep them within the democratic fold, Merkel will need to provide clear answers to the questions many Germans have. This is especially true now that a rejected Tunisian asylum seeker with a criminal record and known jihadist ties is the prime suspect. Why was this applicant from a safe country of origin not rejected and sent back more swiftly? Why did authorities lose track of him, even though he was classified as a Gefährder, a known extremist judged ready to commit violent acts?

Merkel will need to better communicate the tougher line on refugee policy that she has pursued since early this year. She will have to ensure that the numbers of asylum applicants continue to go down and that those rejected are more quickly returned to their home countries.

She will have to push even harder for deals with countries in North Africa and the Middle East aimed at keeping people out of Europe. That will bring Germany closer to the European mainstream on immigration and refugees – perhaps helping to forge a common European Union approach focused on externalizing the problem.

Domestically, this means toughening the surveillance of the more than 500 known extremists in the country. Last year, Thomas de Maizière, the German minister of the interior, argued that a ​“complete monitoring of these Gefährder is not readily possible due to legal reasons and the fact that it requires a lot of resources.” He made the case that that ​“irregular monitoring” and ​“monitoring on special occasions” could be more effective. This approach needs to change swiftly if Merkel and de Maizière do not want to gamble away public trust.

The political situation in Germany remains highly volatile as the country enters an election year, with voters slated to go to the polls in September. Public opinion is vulnerable to outside influencing through Russian sponsored propaganda and fake news and other efforts to influence the elections. Right-wing Breitbart News, which will expand to Germany soon, will have a field day if there are other terrorist attacks.

A centrist and calm response to the Berlin attack was possible also because it was the first of its kind; and with 12 deaths, the death toll was relatively limited. The situation will change quickly if attacks on this scale become more frequent, or if a truly big one hits.

A Bataclan style commando operation in Berlin ahead of the elections could be a game changer. It would be naïve to assume that the only reaction would be to rally around Merkel as the experienced leader in testing times. Equally plausible is a panic within Merkel’s own ranks, leading her to resign with finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble taking over as an interim solution.

Even in the absence of such an extreme scenario, it’s clear that the politics of fear will be a key driving force of the 2017 election campaign in Germany. This does not just concern terrorist attacks. According to a recent poll, 77% of Germans think crime and violence are on the rise.

The center has lost the initiative, when it comes to setting a positive agenda. The charged atmosphere makes it unlikely that Germany will adopt a comprehensive immigration law that the country needs if it is to foster the arrival of much-needed talent.

Unless the center finds a way to respond to the politics of fear, any positive vision for Germany or Europe will fail to get a hearing.

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A version of this commentary originally appeared in Politico Europe on December 22, 2016.