The Psychology of a New Geopolitical Era: Navigating an Age of Disruption

In recent months, the unprecedented volatility introduced into the United States’ foreign policy by the second Trump administration has spurred chaos across many global political fora. The current White House deliberately generates outrage and noise to make it harder for others to think straight, to analyze their behavior, and to formulate effective strategies against their actions. Moreover, from a European view, the Trump administration has further fueled the Putin regime’s challenge to the international order – Washington’s and Moscow’s moves often appear to amplify one another. How can states like Germany and other European partners avoid getting caught in this dynamic and move from a reactive approach to a proactive strategy?

This research project offers a new approach to understanding current inter-state negotiations and geopolitics, and shows that seemingly unpredictable moves made by the US, and to a lesser extent, Russia, aren’t necessarily unpredictable. We explore how psychological concepts such as narcissism (and the large body of research on it) can help explain the motives, goals and patterns of behavior of the new US administration, in particular. More importantly, we translate this analysis into guidance for third-party states like Germany on how to avoid common traps in reacting to volatile great powers’ ​“behavioral” patterns. 

About the Project Team:

Sofie Lilli Stoffel is a Research Fellow at the Global Public Policy Institute (GPPi) who focuses on long-term strategies for foreign and security policy. 

Prof. Philipp Yorck Herzberg is a professor of personality psychology and psychological assessment at the University of the Federal Armed Forces Hamburg and serves as an external expert on this project. 

For more information, please contact the project lead, Sofie Lilli Stoffel.

This project was made possible by generous private donations from several individuals to GPPi. We gratefully acknowledge significant contributions by Eric Syz and Dr. Bernd Frhr. von Maltzan.