In the Grip of Trump, Putin & Xi
Germany and Europe Must Reinvent Themselves in a Hostile World
A looming trade war against the German export industry. A deal with Moscow at the expense of Ukraine and the European security order. Late-imperial ambitions ranging from Greenland to Gaza. The push to pave the way to power for the far right in Germany and across Europe. The ambition to neutralize the European Union as a regulatory actor able to stand up to US interests. Under President Trump, the power that Germany has traditionally looked to for protection, the US, is increasingly turning into a hostile force. Germany and the European Union find themselves caught in the grip of a modern triumvirate: Trump, Putin and Xi. They are fighting for breathing space in a world where the USA, Russia and China see Europe as prey.
That, in sober terms, is the reality in which Germany finds itself coming up on this Sunday’s elections. The task for the next German government is clear: reorganize Germany’s and Europe’s self-assertion in a hostile world. A world where the law of the jungle prevails and where the powerful laugh in the face of German and European self-perceptions of being “civilian” and “normative” powers.
At last week’s Munich Security Conference, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said: “We will not agree to any solution that leads to a decoupling of European and American security.” That’s a bit like the former Afghan President Ashraf Ghani telling then‑U.S. President Biden that he would not agree to the US withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan. The decision to decouple European security lies in the hands of the US – Germany has no veto power here. Therefore, we must prepare for the possibility that this could become a reality and take precautions so that a US retreat from Europe does not lead to a crumbling of the European order that guarantees freedom across much of the continent.
Together with European partners, the incoming German government should agree with the US administration on a roadmap to ensure that within the next decade, Europe takes over full responsibility for the conventional defense of its own continent — with concrete milestones for the critical capabilities currently provided by the US military. And even though Washington is not currently questioning its nuclear-extended deterrence policy, the German government should – behind closed doors – discuss a Plan B with France and the UK for expanding Europe’s independent nuclear deterrence capability, in case the US withdraws its nuclear umbrella.
Yes, such considerations are scary, and yes, Germany’s priority should be closing the conventional capability gap. But it would be even more dangerous to rely, like the Chancellor seems to be doing, on the assumption that we can simply decree that the undesirable will not happen. Eight years ago, Scholz’s predecessor Angela Merkel declared at a beer tent event in Trudering that “we Europeans must truly take our destiny into our own hands.” Today, we are seeing the dramatic consequences of taking that statement seriously.
Wherever possible, Europe should seek agreements with Trump based on shared interests. At the same time, Trump leaves Europe no choice but to reduce its dependencies on the USA and build countervailing power together with others. This is why investments in both new and old partners, ranging from Canada to India, are worthwhile. The focus should be on reducing the most critical technological vulnerabilities and developing capabilities that no country – including the US – can afford to ignore. However, dreams of complete technological sovereignty based on an entirely European “EuroStack” do not pass the reality stress-test in a world where Europe must become a leading user of artificial intelligence today.
It would also be naive to see a pivot toward Beijing as a smart response to Trump’s overreach. This does nothing to change the reality that a ‘China Shock 2.0’ threatens Germany’s core industries — even if both Olaf Scholz and Friedrich Merz seem to continue to deny this danger. Germany must orchestrate protective measures within the EU to safeguard European core industries rather than sabotage them as it tried to in the case of EV tariffs.
Germany must learn that being an ‘export world champion’ is a high-risk strategy in a world where the governments of both China and the US – the largest markets outside Europe – promote their industries at the expense of global competitors. We must rely more on demand at home and in Europe, and take decisive steps to tear down the excessive barriers in the EU internal market. In other words: nothing less than a fundamental readjustment of the German economic model.
It is so incredibly reassuring that we have thoroughly discussed these issues during the election campaign.
This commentary was originally published by Handelsblatt as part of a recurring column on Geoeconomics on February 19, 2025.
